BASEBALL
6.11.03 - Gary Sheffield

Is it possible that at 34 a player can have a career year?  Usually career years are reserved for players
in the late 20's.  Is it possible for a six time all star to finally come into his own after fifteen years in the
league?  Sure, why not?  Check out Gary Sheffield's projected stats for this season:

.353 BA  44 HR  138 RBI  26 SB

None of those numbers are really all that suprising, except maybe his stolen base number.  Gary has
only stolen twenty or more bases in a season twice before, in 1990 (when he was 21) he stole 25
bases and in 1998 (when he was 29) he stole 22 bases.  So, this would be his career high in SB if he
stayed on pace.  It seems a little odd that a player would set his career high for stolen bases at 34
years old.

Sheffield's best season came in 1996, here are his stats from that season:

.314 BA  42 HR  120 RBI  16 SB

And here are Sheffield's career averages (per 162 games played):

.296 BA  32 HR  103 RBI  13 SB

The 42 homers and 120 RBI from 1996 represent his best totals from that category, and his batted
.330 in 1992, which is his best year in that category.  That means that if Sheffield stays on his current
pace, he will reach career highs in all four categories listed above.  At 34 years old, that would be
amazing.

The thing with Sheffield, of course, is that he has a very difficult time staying healthy.  In his fifteen
years in the league, he has only played more than 150 games twice and at least 140 games six times.  
Reaching these career marks will rely on his health as much as any other factor.

Speaking of Sheffield's career, here are his career numbers:

.296 BA  340 HR  1100 RBI  182 SB

That's a good solid career, but not Hall of Fame numbers.  Not yet, at least.  While the 500 homerun
mark is getting easier to reach, I think we still have to consider it the benchmark for Hall of Fame
entry.  If Sheffield reaches 500 dingers, he should get in.  So, including this year, he needs 160 bombs.
 He is 34 years old, and can be expected to play for another four or five years, barring career-ending
injury.  That means he has to average between 32-40 homers a season until he retires to make it.  In
his fifteen years he has averaged about 23 homers a season, although that might be skewed by his first
couple seasons at the big league level, when he wasn't a starter.  Take those out, and he has averaged
25 homers a season.  That's not going to get him there.  Maybe Sheff can ask Barry Bonds for his
pharmacists number to help him get those extra homers he needs.
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