1.6.03
Well, it's January, that means it's time to start thinking about the new baseball season. Well,
ok, that could just be me, but so much has gone on in baseball lately that I feel compelled to
write an article. Most people are still worked up about the NFL season, especially here in
Kansas City, but for those of you whose teams failed to make the playoffs (sorry, Drew) it is
time to start looking forward to baseball season.
Pop Quiz (answer at the bottom of the page): Who was the highest paid player in the National
League in 2003?
Last year I wrote a column early on in the season that featured three players that were off to
the best starts of their careers. I followed them throughout the season to see if they would
taper off or continue on to have career years. Here are their final statistics for 2003:
Mike Matheny
Mike ended up batting .252, a career high, with 8 homeruns, which tied his career high, and
47 rbi, which also tied his career high. Additionally, he set career highs in hits (111), walks
(44) and on base percentage (.320). So, it seems that Matheny did indeed have his career
year, although no where near the early pace he set. Matheny is not a good offensive baseball
player, so his career year really isn't all that impressive, but I'm sure the Cardinals appreciated
the bump they received in his offensive output. Mike is a 32 year old catcher, so I would say
it is fairly safe that he will not continue to get better, but will probably revert back to his old
ways, or worse.
Brent Mayne
Brent finished batting .245, which is below is career average, with 6 homers, tying his career
high, and 36 rbi, which is just above his career average. Most of his other stats fell right in
with his career averages. Mayne, like Matheny, is not a good offensive player (with the
exception of his years in Colorado) and unlike Matheny, isn't really that special behind the
plate either. His early season heroics helped boost the Royals to their tremendous start to the
season, but his offense hurt the team later in the season. At 35 years old, Brent can't
seriously be expected to be better than his performance this past year.
Jeff Suppan
Jeff finished with a 13-11 record, setting a high in wins and winning percentage for seasons
with at least 10 decisions, a 4.19 ERA, a career low, 110 Ks and 51 walks, both better than
his career averages. Jeff's performance fell off a cliff in the second half of the season,
especially after being traded to the Red Sox at the trading deadline. Jeff's stats make 2003 his
career year to this point, but they are still mediocre, at best. Jeff is only 29, so it is possible
that he could equal these stats or do better if he is able to pitch for a quality team for a
complete season.
All three of the guys that I picked after the first three weeks of the season had significant
drop-off throughout the year, as expected. Here are some guys that undeniably had their
career years in 2003 [note: for previous best years, I only considered seasons in which the
player had at least 400 at bats]:
Edgar Renteria
Edgar set career highs in batting (.330; previous best: .305), rbi (100; previous best: 83),
walks (65; previous best: 63), on base percentage (.394; previous best: .364), slugging
percentage (.480; previous best: .439), and hits (194; previous best: 171).
Edgar is only 27, so it is certainly possible that he will duplicate his 2003 performance or even
better it in the future.
Javy Lopez
Javy set career highs in batting (.328; previous best: .295), homeruns (43; previous best: 34),
rbi (109; previous best: 106), on base percentage (.378; previous best: .361), slugging
percentage (.687!; previous best: .540), and hits (150; previous best: 138).
If there was ever an example of a guy coming through big in his free agency year, I've never
seen it. Javy is a 32 year old catcher who has had an off and on career that has been
pock-marked with injuries. His contract was up after 2003 and he made the most of himself
for the market, and it paid off when the Orioles signed him to a lucrative deal. I think the
odds of Javy ever duplicating these results again are extremely thin.
Bill Mueller
Bill set career highs in batting (.326; previous best: .294), homeruns (19; previous best: 10),
rbi (85; previous best: 59), on base percentage (.398; previous best .388), slugging
percentage (.540; previous best: .395), and hits (171; previous best: 157).
2003 was Bill's first season playing for the Red Sox, and he apparently learned to use the
Green Monster to his advantage very well. You have to wonder if Bill's career stats wouldn't
be very similar to Wade Boggs' if he had played his whole career with Boston. Bill is 32 years
old, so it is doubtful that he will improve much on his 2003 stats, but as long as he stays in
Boston, I think it is conceivable that he will continue to hit at the pace he set last year.
I would also feel remiss if I didn't mention David Ortiz here, as well. David also hit very well
in his first year in Boston, setting career highs in homers, batting average, rbi, on base
percentage and slugging percentage, but he only had two other 400 at bat seasons to compare
to since Minnesota never let him play everyday (although Boston didn't either, as he only
played in 128 games last year).
Esteban Loaiza
Esteban set career highs in wins (21; previous best: 11) and strikeouts (207; previous best:
137), and a career low in ERA (2.90; previous best: 4.13).
I think I remember hearing that Esteban learned a new pitch this season that led to his
success. It certainly worked well for him. Esteban is 31 years old, so it certainly seems
possible that he will continue to pitch at a level closer to his 2003 performance than his
previous years performances.
Answer to Pop Quiz: Mo Vaughn at $17,166,667 (ouch!)
Here are the top five earners in baseball for 2003:
1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Manny Ramirez
3. Carlos Delgado
4. Mo Vaughn
5. Sammy Sosa
Which one of these players sticks out like a sore back to the NY Mets' insurance carrier?