BASEBALL
	1.13.04 Last season the Kansas City Royals awoke from their long slumber and had their first winning season in a decade.  They fell short of the playoffs, but were in contention all the way to the last month of the season.  This offseason they have made a lot of moves in order to put them in position to win their division in 2004.  Because the Royals are one of the poorest teams in baseball, these moves all had to be made under a tight budget.  In large part, I believe they have been successful.  The Royals have retained some of their key free agents, such as Brian Anderson, Joe Randa, and Kevin Appier, and they have attracted several other free agents, such as Matt Stairs and Benito Santiago, to Kansas City.  Meanwhile, some of their dead weight (see: Michael Tucker) has left the team through free agency. The biggest of all the moves occurred last week when the Royals signed former MVP Juan Gonzalez to a one year contract.  He will replace the departed Raul Ibanez in right field and he will give the Royals a legitimate power threat.  The question is, however, should the Royals have kept Ibanez (a team leader and popular player in the community) instead of spending the money for Juan Gonzalez?  Juan Gone got a one year deal worth $4.5 million, which escalates to $5 million if he gets 400 at bats, and escalates to $6 million if he gets 500 at bats.  Raul Ibanez signed with Seattle for 3 years and $4.3 million a year.  Assuming that Ibanez would have signed with Kansas City for the same deal as he got in Seattle, would he have been a better signing? Here are last year's stats and the career stats for each player: Ibanez - 2003 .294 BA, 18 HR, 90 RBI, .345 OBP, .454 SLG (.799 OPS), 157 games played Ibanez - career .278 BA, 69 HR, 305 RBI, .334 OBP, .464 SLG (.798 OPS) Gonzalez - 2003 .294 BA, 24 HR, 70 RBI, .329 OBP, .572 SLG (.901 OPS), 82 games played Gonzalez - career .296 BA, 429 HR, 1387 RBI, .344 OBP, .563 SLG (.907 OPS) We also have to keep in mind that Ibanez will be 32 this season and Gonzalez will be 34.   Also, the numbers are somewhat skewed for Ibanez because last season was really the first season that any team gave him a starting job for the whole season.  Regardless, Gonzalez has clearly been the better hitter over the course of his career, but the real debate starts when you take into account the fact that Gonzalez hasn't played more than 82 games since 2001 and has played in 140 or more games in only 6 of his 15 seasons. I wasn't exactly sure what to make of these comparisons, so I asked my baseball advisors to weigh in on the topic - here are the responses I received: From Drew Reichardt: Juan Gonzalez.  No doubt in my mind I would take a 1 year, $4.5-$6 million contract for him over a 3-year, $13 million deal for Ibanez or any type of similar contract for a Mondesi or similar player.  Ibanez had a pretty good year last year, but not all that great.  In fact, he has never had a great season.  He is 31 years old.  Committing to him for three years at $13 million provides less flexability to KC than the 1-year deal for Gonzalez.  Gonzalez has had injury problems and attitude problems, but he has had great years.  A number of them.   Entering this season, the Royals have to be thinking to themselves "Was last year an anomaly, or are we actually a good team?"  If they actually are a good team, and Gonzalez has the type of year he is capable of having, then they can win that division.  If the question is answered in the negative and they are not really a good team, then they did not commit to a $4+ million per year salary past this year.  Seems like they made the better move to me. The real questiuon is, what they hell are they going to do for pitching?  Appier, May, Anderson, Affeldt?  They will need a huge offense make up for their staff.  I guess that's why they felt they had to take a gamble on Gonzalez. From Mitchell: Ibanez: lefty younger team chemistry. From Shawn Rowlett: Juan Gone has a much better chance of getting hurt than a younger Ibanez.  If I am a team with very little cash to spend I want my player out there 150 games a year, not 80.  Ibanez has improved considerably over the last couple of years and I think will continue to do so.  I would rather sign Ibanez to a multi-year contract and give us a solid outfielder for years to come, than throw all my money towards a player in the hopes he can stay healthy long enough to help us for 1 year. From Ryan Clark: You have to figure that the Royals are paying Juan Gone 56,250/game for the 80 games he is going to play. Now if this was New York, good deal. Not so much in KC, because if this doesn't work, then they are going to lose money, which will lead to a roster dump next year, and they are back to square one. From Tim Reichardt: I agree that Juan may be a waste of money - after all, he is VERY injury prone.  But, from a business standpoint, the GM needs to figure out how to "get fannies in the seats".  If Juan-Gone has a good season and puts out 40+ homers, he'll be their big name draw.  So, though there may be other options out there, you need to have some superstars in the lineup to draw a decent crowd. From Steve Fleischaker: It seems to me that with their roster mostly intact from 2003 the Royals could expect to do no better than another 2nd or 3rd place finish.  While Raul Ibanez was one of my favorite players for his versatility and constant 100% effort not to mention his live bat and skills as a contact hitter, I believe Gonzalez gives the Royals the impact power hitter that they've never had.  Even in their glory years of the late 70's & early 80's the Royals never had a power hitter or top RBI producer.  If Gonzalez remains healthy and even comes close to his career averages, I think the Royals win an additional 10-20 games.  Teams will have no choice but to pitch to Sweeney or Beltran with Gonzalez sandwiched in between.  The Royals pitching staff won't be significantly different therefore they are going to have to outscore most opponents offensively.  While Mondesi, Ibanez, Reggie Sanders (a Cardinal now and habitual postseason participant) are nice players, none of them provide Gonzalez's power potential.   There is a big difference between 25 home runs and 35 home runs, a bigger difference between 130 rbi's and 100 rbi's. I think the Royals are taking a big risk but lets face it their window of opportunity is a short one so they have to play for a title in '04. Gonzalez gives them a better chance to win now than Mondesi or Ibanez. So there you have it.  The correct answer is: False.  I guess we'll just have to wait and see.
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