3.25.04
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
The Baltimore Orioles are one of the interesting stories for the 2004 season. The background of this
story starts in 1997, when the Orioles went 98-64 and led the American League Eastern Division
wire-to-wire, only to get beaten by the Cleveland Indians in the playoffs. That 1997 Baltimore team was
filled with veteran stars, many of whom were in their prime, or perhaps just past their primes. That team
included:
Rafael Palmeiro - 1B, 32 years old
Roberto Alomar - 2B, 29 years old
Cal Ripken - 3B, 36 years old
Mike Bordick - SS, 32 years old
BJ Surhoff - LF, 32 years old
Brady Anderson - CF, 33 years old
Jimmy Key - P, 36 years old
Scott Erickson - P, 29 years old
Mike Mussina - P, 28 years old
Randy Myers - P, 34 years old
That's a great team, but in general the prime of a players career is considered to be from about 26-32 or
so. A lot of these guys were starting the downhill portion of their career. If there was going to be a year
for this team to win it all, 1997 was probably it.
In 1998, the Orioles kept the team together, with only minor changes to the roster, which is
understandable considering they had won 98 games the previous year and they were loaded with stars.
While many of these stars were getting a little bit older, it was certainly a decent bet that they would still
have a good year. Unfortunately, they did not. The Orioles went 79-83 in 1998, which also marked the
first year of a current six year run of the Yankees winning the AL East crown.
In an effort to reload, the Orioles made some moves for 1999, bringing in Charles Johnson (27), Jeff
Conine (33), Delino DeShields (30), and Albert Belle (32). Out of the mix were Palmeiro (34), Alomar
(31), Lenny Webster (33), and Eric Davis (36). These moves got the team somewhat younger, and at
the time seemed like pretty good moves. Johnson was supposed to be a power hitting catcher with great
defensive skills and would be a huge upgrade on Lenny Webster, Al Belle was a perennial MVP candidate
and DeShields, while never anyone's idea of an equal to Alomar, was supposed to provide some speed
and defense at second at a much cheaper price than Alomar. But the Orioles were actually a game worse
in 1999, finishing 78-84. While Belle did produce great numbers for Baltimore that year, the core of the
team was getting older and more ineffective.
In 2000 the team hoped that 1999 was a fluke and that the veterans would put together a run at the
post-season. At this point the lineup looked like this:
Charles Johnson - C - 28 years old
Will Clark/Jeff Conine - 1B - 36/34 years old respectively
Delino DeShields - 2B - 31 years old
Cal Ripken - 3B - 39 years old
Mike Bordick - SS - 34 years old
BJ Surhoff - LF - 35 years old
Brady Anderson - CF - 36 years old
Albert Belle - RF - 33 years old
Harold Baines - DH - 41 years old
This team is now significantly older than the one that had success in 1997 and was increasingly more
expensive too. The slide continued with a final record of 74-88. Mike Mussina, who should be in his
prime at 31 years old, goes 11-15 with a 3.79 ERA. Meanwhile, somehow the team saw fit to let Pat
Rapp start 30 games even though he had an ERA of 5.90.
In 2001, Baltimore begins the process of purging its roster of veterans, losing Johnson, DeShields,
Mussina, Erickson, and Rapp. Belle is also gone due to his career ending hip injury. Ripken, Bordick,
Anderson, and Conine are still around to go 63-98 this year, but the team sees hope in the first
appearances of some talented youngsters like Jay Gibbons, Larry Bigbie, Luis Matos, and Jorge Julio.
In 2002, the purge is continued with the retirement of Ripken and the loss of Brady Anderson. The team
still has 35 year old Erickson and his 5.55 ERA and 36 year olds Jeff Conine and Mike Bordick (Bordick
managed to play in 117 games despite hitting .232). But hope is on the horizon, even though the team
finished 67-95. Jay Gibbons hit 28 homers, Rodrigo Lopez goes 15-9 with a 3.57 ERA, and Jorge Julio
saves 25 games with a 1.99 ERA.
2003 continued the youth movement and play improvement. Conine is still around (although he is traded
to Florida at the deadline), but all other position players are 30 or younger. Erickson is finally gone,
although he was replaced by 32 year old Rick Helling (5.57 ERA) and 31 year old Omar Daal (6.34 ERA).
The team also made a great deadline trade with San Francisco, trading away 26 year old Sidney Ponson
(who they craftily resigned as a free agent during the offseason) for 26 year old pitcher Damian Moss
and 24 year old super prospect (former 1st round pick) Kurt Ainsworth.
Which brings us to 2004. The Orioles have a solid foundation of young, cheap talent including Jay
Gibbons, Brian Roberts, Larry Bigbie, Luis Matos, Sidney Ponson, Kurt Ainsworth, Rodrigo Lopez and
Jorge Julio. This past offseason they went out and made a huge splash in the free agent market, signing
former AL MVP Miguel Tejada (27), Javy Lopez (33), and their old pal Rafael Palmeiro (38). Here is
their projected lineup for 2004:
Javy Lopez - C - 33
Rafael Palmeiro - 1B - 38
Brian Roberts/Jerry Hairston - 2B - 26/28 respectively
Melvin Mora - 3B - 32
Miguel Tejada - SS - 27
Larry Bigbie - LF - 26
Luis Matos - CF - 25
Jay Gibbons - RF - 27
David Segui - DH - 37
Sidney Ponson - P - 27
Rodrigo Lopez- P - 28
Kurt Ainsworth - P - 25
Eric DuBose - P - 28
Matt Riley - P - 24
Jorge Julio - CP -25
This is a considerably younger team than sported in the past (note that all five projected starting pitchers
are under 30 years old). The Tejada signing cannot be faulted (although some will argue that he already
had his peak year in 2002 when he hit .308 with 34 homers), but the Lopez and Palmeiro signings are
questionable at best. Lopez is coming off of his career year of .328 43 109, and no one expects him to
put up those numbers again. Palmeiro seems like he can go on forever hitting 38 homers a year, but
eventually his age will catch up to him. The question that makes this team so intriguing for this season is
whether these veteran free agent signings are the pieces of the puzzle needed around the young talent
base established over the last couple of years, or are these signings a reversion to the mentality of
1998-2000?