3.31.04
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
The Los Angeles Dodgers are one of the all time great franchises in Major League Baseball. They have an all time winning percentage of .524,
which is third behind the Yankees and the Giants. They have won 22 pennants, which is second to the Yankees, and six World Series', which is
fourth behind the Yankees, A's, and Cardinals. The Dodgers have been in somewhat of a postseason drought over the last decade and a half,
though. The last time they won a World Series was in 1988 (mainly remembered for Kirk Gibson's game-winning homerun in Game 1). The
Dodgers have been to the playoffs twice since then, in 1995 and 1996, but were swept in the first round both times.
However, during the last fifteen years since their last World Series victory, the Dodgers have remained consistently above average. They have
only finished below .500 three times in those 15 years, and similarly, they have only won more than 90 games 3 times over the same period.
Their winning percentage has been a very respectable .518 in that time period. The Dodgers, who have always been known for developing talent,
had players win 5 Rookie of the Year awards in a row during this period (from 1992-1996), however, none of those players ever won an MVP or
a Cy Young award, and only one ever won a Gold Glove (Raul Mondesi won twice).
In 1989, the year after the Dodgers won the World Series, they fell to 77-83 and no where near the playoffs. This was an odd team that perhaps
fell in the crack between two eras of baseball. The 1980's were ending and a new emphasis on power hitting (epitomized by the Oakland A's,
their victims in the previous year's World Series) was emerging. This Dodgers team had five starting pitchers with ERA's under 3.50, led by Orel
Hershiser, Fernando Valenzuela, and Tim Belcher, but had no big time power hitter in the lineup (reigning MVP Kirk Gibson was injured for most
of the season and limited to 72 games). This trend continued in 1990 and 1991 with the Dodgers finishing second both years with respectable
pitching but no thunder on offense.
1992 brought the first of their string of Rookies of the Year in Eric Karros. The team was beginning to retool around young players including a
promising shortstop named Jose Offerman. Even with the emergence of Karros and Offerman, the Dodgers fell to 63-99. In 1993 they brought
in Mike Piazza, who was ROY. They also had a young Pedro Martinez in the bullpen (10-5, 2.61 ERA), but failed to realize that they had their
future ace and traded him to Montreal for Delino DeShields after the season [side note: this must be the worst trade in the history of the
Dodgers]. They finished at 81-81 in 1993. The Dodgers played well during the strike shortened 1994 season and finished in first place in their
division. They were led by Piazza, Karros and ROY winning Raul Mondesi, but the strike robbed them of any chance at the postseason. In 1995
Hideo Nomo won the ROY and the Dodgers made the postseason, only to be swept by Cincinnati in the first round.
If the Dodgers were to have won a World Series during this fifteen year time period, 1996 or 1997 seems to be the years that they should have
done it. In 1996 Todd Hollandsworth broke out of the minors and won the ROY, Piazza and Karros both hit 30 or more homers and drove in 100
or more runs. Raul Mondesi provided a .297 average with 24 homers and 88 RBI. The pitching staff had four starters with ERA's under 3.50,
including a 16-11 Nomo, a 15-7 Ishmael Valdez, a 9-8 Pedro Astacio (3.44 ERA in 32 starts and he only gets 17 decisions?), and a 15-6 Ramon
Martinez. Somehow a team with all this talent managed to finish a game behind a mediocre Padres team that went on to lose the World Series.
The same team fell even further the next year, going 88-74 in 1997.
Early in the season in 1998 the Dodgers completed a blockbuster trade sending the heart and soul of their team, Piazza, along with Todd Zeile to
the Florida Marlins for Charles Johnson, Gary Sheffield, Bobby Bonilla, and a couple boxes of batting practice baseballs (or something). The
shakeup didn't have the desired effect, as the Dodgers finished at 83-79.
In 1999, Charles Johnson is gone, as is Hideo Nomo, and the Dodgers opened their bank account to Kevin Brown. They finish below .500 at
77-85.
In 2000 they trade Mondesi for Shawn Green and finish 86-76. 2001 brings the departure of Hollandsworth (widely considered a bust) and the
beginning of the injury saga of Kevin Brown. Paul Lo Duca does emerge at age 29 to be a quality catcher and the always solid starting staff keep
the Dodgers at 86-76. In 2002 the Dodgers brought Nomo back and sign Kaz Ishii and Eric Gagne takes over the closer role and saves 52
games. A successful year for the Dodgers (92 wins) still leaves them short of the playoffs, though.
In 2003 Eric Karros and Gary Sheffield are gone, meaning that Nomo is the only one of their ROY's left from their string of 5 straight. Worse,
even still, is that only seven years removed from the last in the string, only Nomo and Shawn Green can be traced directly to those five ROY's.
The bounty received for Piazza is all gone and the others fizzled out and left for nothing.
This past fifteen year run has to have been a bittersweet one for Dodgers fans. On the whole, they really can't complain too much - their team
was competetive almost every year and they generall won more than they lost. They also had the privilege of watching some great players like
Piazza, Sheffield, Ramon Martinez, Nomo, Kevin Brown, and Eric Gagne. But with all those players and the others that won ROY, there must be
a huge sense of disappointment that these teams could never break out and have that one great season that would have brought a world
championship to Los Angeles.
2004 brings even more changes to Los Angeles. The Dodgers have a new owner and a new General Manager, Paul DePodesta. DePodesta is
best known as Billy Beane's assistant GM over the past few years for the Oakland A's. He played a major role in the book Moneyball that
celebrated Oakland's methods for evaluating talent and running a ballclub. It will certainly be intersting to see if DePodesta can implement those
same methods in Los Angeles with the same success that Oakland has had.
On the field, the Dodgers have lost Kevin Brown, Brian Jordan, Jeromy Burnitz, and Fred McGriff, all of whom are in the twilights of their
respective careers (and the light may be out in a couple of cases). They have brought in Jeff Weaver and Juan Encarnacion, both younger and
with considerable talent, but also both with some question marks. The Dodgers farm system is stacked, as always, and this year we will see
ROY candidate Edwin Jackson in the starting rotation. The Dodgers have always had great pitching, and will again this year, but, as always, they
are a little weak on offense. Their core of LoDuca, Adrian Beltre, Green, and Encarnacion does not scare opposing pitchers and the Dodgers
would like to add a potent bat to their lineup. Unfortunately for DePodesta, the Dodgers are a little thin in the farm system with positional players,
so they won't be producing a string of quality players like Oakland has to provide the offense.
As it stands, it seems likely that the Dodgers will remain true to form: a solid team, but not a great one. I would expect them to win somewhere
between 85-90 games with strong pitching performances. As the season wears on it will be interesting to watch for DePodesta to try and
leverage some of his minor league pitching talent into a major league bat that could propel this team into the playoffs.