4.8.04
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
The Blue Jays have been widely picked to be a darkhorse team this year - which is really just a way for sportswriters to hedge their bets.
Everyone is going to pick the Yankees and the Red Sox to finish ahead of Toronto, but, because Toronto is getting better, and just in case the
Yankees or Red Sox should falter, the media puts a label like "darkhorse" on the Blue Jays. It is really a no lose situation, because if Toronto does
pass Boston or New York (or both, I suppose), the writer can claim that they predicted it, but if they don't, the writer can will remind everyone
that he picked Boston and New York and said that Toronto would be a longshot. Toronto isn't the only example of the sports media hedging so
that their predictions don't look foolish - everyone is talking about Houston and Chicago in the NL Central, but then hedge by reminding people not
to forget about St. Louis and their potent offense.
Well, I'm not going to hedge. The Blue Jays are much improved, but they don't stand a chance against New York and Boston in the AL East.
Toronto has had an interesting history over the last couple of decades. They join the Angels, Red Sox, and Cardinals as the only teams that have
won at least 70 games in every year (excluding strike-shortened years) since 1980. However, since they last won the World Series in 1993, they
have finished below .500 six out of ten seasons.
Toronto's success over the last decade or so has been through free agent acquisitions and trades of established players (see: Roger Clemens,
Roberto Alomar, and Joe Carter). Their failures have largely been through their home grown talent and aquired prospects (except for Carlos
Delgado). Over the last ten years Alex Gonzalez, Shannon Stewart, Woody Williams, Jose Cruz, Jr., Chris Carpenter, Robert Person, and Homer
Bush all were viewed with high expectations in Toronto and all failed to meet those expectations. Alex Gonzalez has never batted over .253 and is
now with the Cubs (where he famously botched a simple groundball that may have cost the Cubs the pennant last year). Shannon Stewart had
some good seasons and is a quality outfielder, but never lived up to expectations and is now with Minnesota. Woody Williams never broke
through with Toronto or San Diego, but has finally found his talent late in his career with St. Louis. Jose Cruz, Jr. has loads of talent and has hit
30 homers in a season on two occasions, but has never driven in 100 runs and has never lived up to the status of being the third overall pick in the
1995 draft. Chris Carpenter ran into arm troubles and is now in St. Louis hoping to revive his career as Woody has. Robert Person wound up in
Philadelphia where he still fails to live up to expectations. Homer Bush got to play on some really good Yankees teams in the late 90's, but that's
about it for his highlights.
Now the Blue Jays have a new crop of prospects that have the baseball world picking them as the "darkhorse" in the AL East. The question is
whether these prospects are going to be more of the same, or will these prospects live up to their expectations? So far, so good, I suppose - last
year, homegrown talent Roy Halliday won the Cy Young award and homegrown centerfielder Vernon Wells went .317 33 117. The Blue Jays will
also count on these prospects to help them compete with Boston and New York:
Orlando Hudson: he is the latest in a line of second baseman since Roberto Alomar helped Toronto win the World Series in 1993. That list of
luminaries includes Homer Bush, Dave Berg, Craig Grebeck, Carlos Garcia, and Tomas Perez. Yikes. Hudson's .268 average last season in 142
games didn't do anything to show that Toronto has it right this time, but Hudson is a good defender with decent speed and bat control and should
become a better hitter as he gains experience (how that differs from Homer Bush, I'm not sure).
Eric Hinske: Eric won the Rookie of the Year award in 2002, but had a terrible sophomore season. If he can bounce back the Jays should be able
to expect about .280 25 85 and solid defense at third from him. He will probably never be the centerpiece of an offense, but he is a valuable
player to surround Delgado and Wells in the lineup.
Josh Phelps: Josh doesn't have a position, which is his major problem. He played most of 2003 as the DH and contributed 20 homeruns. He
strikes out way too much and provides nothing on defense, but really mashes the ball when he actually makes contact.
Reed Johnson: At 28 he may be a little old for a prospect, but he was thrown into the leadoff spot in 2003 and responded with .294 10 52. He will
never be a star, but if he can continue to get on base in front of the big boppers he will stick around.
Alexis Rios: He's going to start the season in AAA, but the predictions are sky high for this kid. An outfielder with a great combination of speed
and power, he has been compared to a young Carlos Beltran.
Only time will tell if this crop of youngsters performs to expectations or if they come up short as their predecessors have done. The bright spot
for Blue Jays fans is that the organization seems to continually be producing young talent that has high expectations. Sometimes they hit solid
gold (Delgado, Halliday, Wells) and sometimes they don't (Bush, Carpenter, Person), but high expectations and young talent is always more
exciting than a barren farm system and overpriced and over-the-hill veterans.