4.16.04
THE DETROIT TIGERS
Before the Oakland A's became the model franchise for small market rebuilding at the beginning of this decade, the model franchise was the
Cleveland Indians. The Indians had built a beautiful new stadium and had locked in young talent to long term contracts. They had built from
within, bringing up superstars like Albert Belle, Manny Ramirez, and Jim Thome. By 1995 Cleveland was considered MLB's success story (much
in the way Oakland is viewed today). Shortly thereafter, Detroit was touted as being the "next Cleveland" because they had built a powerful farm
system and were working on building a new stadium. In 1997 Detroit's average age for position players was 26.5 and for pitchers was 27.5.
That's a pretty young team, and many of their up and coming stars were all on the verge of their peak years (in baseball players tend to have their
peak years between the ages of 26 and 32). The team included:
1B - Tony Clark (25 years old) he hit .276 with 32 homers and 117 rbi
2B - Damian Easley (27 years old) he hit .264 with 22 homers and 72 rbi, along with 28 stolen bases
3B - Travis Fryman (28 years old - doesn't it seem like Fryman was never young?) he hit .274 with 22 homers and 102 rbi
LF - Bobby Higginson (26 years old) he hit .299 with 27 homers and 101 rbi
CF - Brian Hunter (26 years old) he hit .269 with 74 stolen bases
SP - Justin Thompson (24 years old) he went 15-11 with a 3.02 ERA and 151 strikeouts
They also gave sparse playing time to Phil Nevin (26), Juan Encarnacion (21), and Frank Catalannato (23).
That is a solid nucleus for a team. They might have been a little thin on pitching, but they did have some talent waiting in Seth Greisinger, Brian
Moehler, and Matt Anderson. This team was picked by many to be a contender in the American League Central for the foreseeable future. They
finished 1997 at 79-83, a very respectable record for a young team.
In 1998 Joe Randa replaces Travis Fryman and provides comparable offense and good defense, Phil Nevin is gone, but they add Luis Gonzalez
and Robert Fick and Gabe Kapler are brought up from the farm system. Clark, Easley, and Higginson all put up good numbers, but Brian Hunter's
on base percentage dips below .300 and he steals 32 fewer bases than the previous season. The main problem for this team is that they struggle
to find a reliable starting pitcher behind Thompson and Moehler. The team takes a step backwards and finishes 65-97.
The revolving door act at third base continues in 1999 as Dean Palmer is brought in to replace Randa. The team seems to realize that neither Clark
or Higginson is going to step up to be the guy that carries this team. Both are better suited to be supporting players and Palmer is brought in to be
the stick they support. Palmer produces, hitting 38 homers. Unfortunately, while Clark has another solid season (.280 31 homers), Higginson
spends much of the season on the DL, playing in only 107 games and only hitting .239 in those games. Easley has never really stepped up his
game from 1997 and provides very similar numbers (.266 20 65, 11 stolen bases). The starting pitching is still the main problem, though, as
Justin Thompson begins to falter, only starting 24 games and going 9-11 with a 5.11 ERA. The real shame is that Jeff Weaver emerges this year
to give the Tigers a reliable third starter behind Thompson and Moehler, but then Thompson and Moehler take steps backwards. The team is four
games better than the last season, finishing 69-92.
2000 was the year it was all supposed to come together. The Tigers play in a new ballpark and have a new manager in Phil Garner. They also
signed free agent cast-off Juan Gonzalez to combine with Palmer, Clark, and Higginson to give the team a potent offense. Hopes are high that
Hideo Nomo can replace the departed Justin Thompson and provide a top of the rotation presence that Detroit has been lacking. Unfortunately,
many of these hopes fall short. Tony Clark plays in only 60 games due to injury, Juan Gonzalez plays well, but is only healthy in 115 games (.289
with 22 homers), and Nomo was terrible, goiong 8-12 with a 4.74 ERA. Higginson (.300 with 30 homers), Palmer (.256 with 29 homers) and
Encarnacion (.289 with 14 homers) all benefit from Juan Gone's presence and have decent years and take the team to a 79-83 record. A ten game
improvement over the previous season would seem like a great improvement, but the rebuilding plan envisioned in 1997 has fallen well short of
expectations.
Things got worse in 2001. Juan Gonzalez' tenure in Detroit expires as he returns to Texas. Tony Clark again only plays a partial season, but is
effective when playing (.287 with 16 homers in 126 games). Palmer only plays in 57 games as his career is basically over due to health issues.
Mysteriously, Higginson loses his power, hitting only 17 homers in 147 games. Jose Lima is now brought in to be the top of the rotation guy, but
he implodes, going 5-10 with a 4.71 ERA. The team falls to 66-96.
2002 was even uglier in Detroit. Tony Clark and Dean Palmer are gone, Jeff Weaver is traded at mid-season to the Yankees, and Bobby
Higginson hits only 10 homers in 119 games. They traded for phenom prospect Carlos Pena, hoping he would provide them with a middle of the
lineup bat at first base, but he is clearly in over his head, hitting .253 with 12 homers and only 36 rbi. The only bright spot on this team is Randall
Simon, who hits .301 with 19 homers and 82 rbi. The pitching staff is atrocious, using 13 different starters and 30 pitchers overall during the
season. As a reference the World Series champion Anaheim Angels used only 18 different pitchers overall during the same season. Detroit ends
up going 55-106.
As you undoubtedly remember, Detroit hit rock bottom in 2003. They went 43-119, making them the worst team to play major league baseball in
a century. Carlos Pena made some minor improvements, hitting .248 with 18 homers, and Dmitri Young replaced Randall Simon's output by
hitting .297 with 29 homers. Higginson hit only .235 and looked like the shell of the player he was in 1997. They didn't use as many pitchers as
the year before, only 10 different starters and 20 pitchers overall, but no starter had an ERA under 4.50, no starter had at least 110 strikeouts, no
one on their staff got more than 5 saves, and Mike Maroth became famous for being the first pitcher in over 20 years to lose 20 games in a season.
Detroit clearly made themselves better for 2004. They signed Pudge Rodriguez, Fernando Vina, Carlos Guillen, Rondell White, Jason Johnson,
and Ugeth Urbina as free agents. Each one of those players is head and shoulders above the player they are replacing, but each one of those
players has a question mark attached to them as well. Pudge has logged a lot of time behind the plate in his career - how long can he hold up (is
he worth the financial risk?); Fernando Vina will provide great defense, but his on base percentage is terrible for a lead off type of hitter; Carlos
Guillen is young and talented at shortstop but is sometimes erratic in the field; Rondell White has a lot of power, but is streaky and injury prone;
Jason Johnson has put up decent seasons, but is not considered to have top of the rotation quality stuff; and for some reason no one seemed to
want Urbina, even though he has a track record of being a reliable 30 save closer.
So, will the Tigers be any better? Obviously they will. They were historically bad last season and even if they had made no changes to their
roster, it would have been difficult to duplicate a 119 loss season. But they have made significant improvements to their roster as well, and some
of their young players have another year of experience under their belts and should improve. They jumped out to a 6-1 start before losing their
last two games, and have become the talk of baseball. Are the Tigers this year's Kansas City Royals? Well, the Royals finished last season 83-79
after losing 100 games the previous season, but in reality they didn't quite play that well. The Royals got a lot of lucky breaks in 2003 and
statistically they should have gone 78-81 (according to the Bill James Pythagorean Won/Loss theory that is remarkably accurate). My instincts tell
me that Detroit still lacks the pitching to win 70 games, but the Royals pitching last season wasn't all that impressive either. It will be interesting
to keep an eye on Detroit this season to see.