| BASEBALL |
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| 8.18.05 Revisiting the Shortstop Merry-go-round During this past offseason, the Red Sox, Angels and Cardinals switched shortstops. First, the Red Sox signed Edgar Renteria, who had recently been with the Cardinals. Then, the Angels signed Orlando Cabrera, who had recently been with the Red Sox. Finally, the Cardinals signed David Eckstein, who had been released by the Angels to make room for Cabrera. This is a unique situation that allows for near-perfect comparisons: all three play the same position, all three are 30 years old, and all three signed brand new contracts. So, with a month and a half left of season #1 of this unique comparison, who has gotten the better deal so far? Edgar Renteria received the biggest contract of the three, 4 years - $40M. Cabrera's contract was somewhat smaller at 4 years and $32M. And the baby bear's porrige was juuuust right, with Eckstein's contract being 3 years and only $10.25M. Of course many people (myself included) believed that the Cardinals overpayed for Eckstein considering that the Angels had just cut him and the Cardinals were the only major league team that still really needed a shortstop. But have Renteria and Cabrera justified their contracts this season? Renteria has been solid at the plate (after struggling early, much to the dismay of the Red Sox faithful). His OPS is a respectable .738 (with .285/.347/.392 averages [note: these averages are batting/on base/slugging]). Edgar has hit 6 homers and driven in 45 runs, while stealing 8 bases. These numbers are pretty close to Edgar's career averages, although I would imagine that the Red Sox were hoping more for numbers like his career year of 2003 (.330/.394/.480 with 100 rbi and 34 sb) for their $10M a year. Cabrera, who has missed some time due to injury, has been less effective. His averages are .252/.305/.350 and he has only hit 5 homers and driven in 36. He has stolen 12 bases, so he's got that going for him, if that floats your boat. The funny thing is that these numbers aren't drastically off Cabrera's career averages. He also had a career year in 2003 (.297/.347/.460 with 17 homers and 80 rbi), so perhaps the Angels were betting their $8M a year on a reprise. The truly ironic thing in this situation is that David Eckstein, the guy the Angels cut to make room for Cabrera, actually has very similar career numbers to Cabrera, with a superior batting and on base percentage, but an inferior slugging percentage. This season Eckstein is easily outpacing Cabrera, with averages of .275/.353/.369 and 5 homers and 42 rbi. These numbers are consistent with his career averages. Offensively, Renteria and Eckstein are a virtual wash and Cabrera trails by a pretty wide margin. The common conception, however, is that Eckstein is a far inferior defender in comparison with Renteria and Cabrera. Of the three, this season Cabrera has the best fielding percentage (.990), making only 4 errors all season (in considerably less chances due to his injury). Eckstein, however, comes in second with a .979 percentage and 11 errors, while Renteria has amassed 22 errors on the year (leading all shortstops) and a .953 fielding percentage. Of course, the common school of thought is that Eckstein doesn't have the range to get to some balls that Renteria and Cabrera do, and therefore they handle more difficult chances. The statistics do bear this out to a certain degree. Eckstein has the highest Range Factor of the three, at 4.78, while Renteria is at 4.34 and Cabrera is at 4.18. However, Eckstein has participated in 85 double plays and 534 total chances, which far surpasses the others. Renteria has 61 and 472, while Cabrera has 47 and 414. So what does this tell us? Probably that Renteria and Cabrera get to more balls, but Eckstein is a more sound defender on the chances he does get. Which, of course, is exactly what everyone thought in the first place. If we look at the three players without the salary component, Renteria would probably get the nod as the best of the three this season by a very narrow margin over Eckstein. Cabrera is clearly the third place finisher for this season. When, however, you take the six and a half million dollar disparity in salary between Eckstein and Renteria this season, it is clear that the Cardinals would up the best of the three teams in the merry-go-round, while the Angels, by paying $4.6M more for an inferior shortstop than the Cardinals are paying to the one they gave away, are clearly the losers. |
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