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	10.4.05 NL Postseason Awards MVP Lately the argument has been whether the MVP should be Andruw Jones or Albert Pujols.  I think that argument is nonsense.  Andruw, while leading the league in homers with 51 and rbi with 128, only batted .262.  His other numbers are not so overwhelming to consider having an MVP that batted under .270.  No, I think the real argument should still be between Albert Pujols and Derrek Lee.  Just because Lee's team missed the playoffs (and wasn't really in the running) doesn't mean he wasn't as valuable or more valuable to his team than anyone else.  In the upset of the year, in fact, I'm picking Lee over Pujols. Lee led the league in batting, at .337.  Pujols was second at .330.  Lee was second to Jones in homers, with 46.  Pujols was third with 41.  Pujols was tied for second behind Jones with 117 rbi, while Lee was fifth with 107.  Lee had a .666 slugging percentage to Pujols' .612.  Pujols edged Lee in stolen bases 16-15.  Pujols also led Lee in on-base percentage, .430 to .421. These are pretty close numbers all around.  To me, the batting average and on-base percentage even each other out.  The rbi edge is inconsequential because the numbers are close and rbi's depend so much on other players on your team.  The margin in homers and slugging percentage (which is aided by a 50-38 advantage for Lee in doubles) gives Lee the slight edge.  Solidifying this edge for me is Lee's edge in Runs Created.  RC is a sabermetric statistic that calculates a batter's contribution to his team in terms of how many runs he was worth.  This seems like an ideal stat upon which to base the MVP (Win Shares is another, but the updated stats for Win Shares are not, to my knowledge, available for the 2005 season yet).  Derrek Lee led the NL in RC with 155.3 and Albert Pujols came in second with 146.4 (for those that still want to argue Andruw Jones, he came in 11th with 111.7). To sum up, Lee holds the statistical edge over Pujols in batting average, slugging average, homers, and runs created, while Pujols holds the edge in on-base percentage and rbi.  I imagine that Pujols will actually win the award because he carried the Cardinals offensively while Rolen, Walker, and Sanders were hurt and Edmonds had an off year.  It will also help that the Cardinals are again in the playoffs while the Cubs are going home, as well as the fact that Pujols has been a bridesmaid to Barry Bonds for the last few years in the MVP balloting, so voters might feel like it is his turn.  But my pick (which is difficult for me to admit) would have to be Lee. Cy Young As with the MVP, this award seems to have narrowed to two candidates in the press: Chris Carpenter and Dontrelle Willis.  I wrote previously about Carpenter and Roger Clemens pitching historic seasons and I think that the Rocket still needs to be in the Cy Young discussion, along with several others.  This race was muddied up because no one really stepped up in September and finished impressively.  Carpenter and Clemens both faltered down the stretch and probably cost themselves a legitimate shot at the award.  Their performances also allowed Andy Pettitte, Pedro Martinez, and Roy Oswalt to re-enter the discussion.  Here are the stats: Clemens        13-8    1.87era    185k    211.1ip Carpenter      21-5    2.83era    213k    241.2ip Willis             22-10  2.63era    170k    236.1ip Martinez        15-8    2.82era    208k    217ip Pettitte           17-9    2.39era    171k    222.1ip Oswalt          20-12   2.94era    184k    241.2ip Clemens' case for the award is built around his sterling ERA.  He is hurt by a lack of run support that lead to him only winning 13 games.  He also pitched the fewest number of innings of anyone on this list.  Martinez makes the list by finishing third in strikeouts and posting a sub-3.00 ERA, but his lack of wins and innings make him a tough choice.  Oswalt finished with 20 wins, third in the league, and tied with Carpenter for the most innings pitched.  His ERA and strikeout totals are a bit low, though, to overcome some of the others.  Pettitte pitched himself into contention with his strong performance down the stretch, earning him second in the league in ERA to go along with his 17 wins.  I don't, however, think that his edge in ERA is big enough to overcome his lack of strikeouts and the amount of wins posted by Willis and Carpenter.  Carpenter faltered down the stretch, raising his ERA by about half a point in September.  He got no decisions in his last three starts, which cost him the league lead in wins.  He did come in second in strikeouts (Jake Peavy led the league), second in wins, and he tied for the lead in innings pitched. Dontrelle Willis lead the league in wins, was third in ERA, tied with Carpenter for the lead in complete games, and pitched well down the stretch.  It is possible that, like Derrek Lee, he may lose votes because he played on a team that missed the playoffs, but I think those considerations are absurd.   Once again going against a Cardinals player, I'm picking Dontrelle Willis as the NL Cy Young award winner. Rookie of the Year Poor Clint Barmes.  He was off to an incredible start to the season and probably to a rookie of the year campaign, but alas, he broke his collarbone in June and barely made it back before the end of the year.  One of his teammates, Garrett Atkins, may just win it instead.  Here are the numbers: Garrett Atkins    .287/.347/.426    13hr    88rbi Willy Taveras     .291/.324/.341      3hr    29rbi    34sb Ryan Howard    .286/.353/.568    22hr    62rbi If Ryan Howard had gotten 500+ at bats (as Atkins and Taveras did) we probably wouldn't need to discuss this, but since he only got 308 at bats... (he and the Philly fans probably wish he'd gotten Jim Thome's horrible pre-injury at bats, too).  That being said, this is a pretty close race.  It is difficult to compare Taveras to the others because he is a different type of ballplayer.  Which is where, again, the runs created statistic is instructive.  In this case, Atkins leads the trio (and all eligible NL rookies) with 72.1 RC, Taveras is second with 69.3 and Howard has 58.8.  A decent argument could be made that an outstanding half season like Howard's (or Jeff Francouer's 250 at bats) should beat out a solid full season like Atkins', but I'm not buying it.  It's called the rookie of the year, not the rookie of the half year.  Atkins gets my (non-existent) vote. Check back tomorrow for my American League picks.
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