The NFL Page
	3.3.03 Football statistics If you have ever read any of my baseball columns for this web site, you know that I am enamored with the statistics of baseball.  While not necessary to the enjoyment of the baseball, I find that studying the statistics of baseball enhances my enjoyment of the game.  My knowledge of football statistics is not nearly as great as my knowledge of baseball statistics.  Using the above reasoning as my guide, I concluded that perhaps I could enhance my enjoyment of football if I were to study the statistics of the game. The problem is that football?s statistics suck.  In baseball a team cannot be successful without a group effort, but an individual player can still be measured accurately on his performance alone.  This is not true in football.  This past season Emmit Smith broke the all time record for rushing yards that had been previously held by Walter Payton.  This was a great achievement, but can we really compare Emmit to another running back without taking into account the quality of the offensive line that he ran behind?  The Dallas Cowboys have had one of the best offensive lines in the whole NFL over the last fifteen years or so, which certainly helped Emmit to his record. I suppose in baseball it could be argued that Barry Bonds wouldn?t have hit 73 homeruns in 2001 if he didn?t have Jeff Kent batting behind him (or in front of him, whichever it was at the time).  It seems to me, however, that there is a much greater correlation between a running back?s offensive line and success than who bats around a hitter in the lineup and his success. Emmit Smith was drafted with the seventeenth pick in the 1990 draft (the Cowboys had already put most of the pieces into place in their rebuilding effort).  The only running back taken ahead of Emmit was Blair Thomas by the New York Jets, who was the second pick overall in the draft.  At the time, Thomas was expected to be a star, but he failed miserably in the NFL.  Was it because the scouts had mis-read his abilities?  Was it because Blair Thomas wasn?t as good as he looked at the combine, or when he played at Penn State?  Granted, Penn State running backs don?t have a good history in the NFL, but it seems more likely that Blair Thomas was never put in a position to succeed, while Emmit was drafted onto a team with loads of young, talented players that were all getting ready to peak at the same time.  If Dallas had gotten Blair Thomas instead of Emmit Smith in the 1990 draft, and Emmit had gone to New York, it seems likely that Thomas would have ended up with a great career.  That?s not to say that Emmit wouldn?t have had a good career, but in football it is a lot easier to succeed when you play on a good team.  That is why football statistics suck. Here?s another reason: take a look at the all-time passer ratings list.  According to this list, which quantifies good quarterbacking, Kurt Warner is the best quarterback ever to play in the NFL.  Between 1999 and 2001 Kurt had three of the best years (statistically) ever played by a quarterback in the NFL.  Do those three years make him the best ever? Well, perhaps Kurt isn?t a good example because his numbers are skewed because of a low sample (he barely crossed the 1500 minimum attempts threshold in 2002).  How about some comparisons of players that are retired ? who was better, Neil Lomax or John Elway?  According to the NFL, Neil Lomax was better by 2.8.  Who was better, Ron Jaworski or Jim (?Chris?) Everett?  Chrissy was better by 5.82.  Who was better, Elvis Grbac or Terry Bradshaw?  Oh yeah, that?s right, it?s Grbac by a whopping 8.68. These numbers are ridiculous.  They become meaningless when Jeff Hostetler is ranked above Bart Star, Fran Tarkenton, Dan Fouts, John Elway, Phil Simms, Johnny Unitas, Joe Theismann, Bob Griese, Ken Stabler, Y.A. Tittle, and Joe Namath (just to name a few). In conclusion, my attempt to enhance my enjoyment of football has failed.  There is too much reliance on teammates for personal statistics to mean much of anything and the NFL?s absurd rating statistics only muddy the water.
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